$ QUANT ADVANTAGE $
ALBERTA POLITICS
Alberta politics is famous for being a contentious, opinion-ridden battleground, crowded with a vast array of political commentators ranging from hard-right fiscal hawks to a peculiarly plentiful supply of left-wing bloggers. A interesting by-product of this situation has been a vast assortment of pollsters regularly publishing sometimes consistent, sometimes conflicting poll numbers, in an (too often vain) attempt to grasp the average Alberta voter's mindset.
Here I present some ideas on the current political situation and updates on how those wacky poll numbers may translate into seats. Feel free to contact me about analysis.
Here I present some ideas on the current political situation and updates on how those wacky poll numbers may translate into seats. Feel free to contact me about analysis.
July 2016 ProjectionsRecent information collected by Insights West (link here) and released publicly translates into a clear majority win for Wildrose, despite the bad press regarding apparent rogues within the party causing trouble. The numbers also do not agree with the narrative presented by the unite-the-right groups Alberta Can't Wait and Alberta Prosperity Fund, as the Wildrose are clearly very capable of defeating the NDP on their own. It will be of interest to analyze how much of the individual right wing vote a united right party would lose.
Quant Advantage survey results, July 15-16, 2016, Downtown Calgary - Latino FestivalA survey conducted by Quant Advantage found a surprisingly high level of support for the NDP among a group of respondents. Participants were approached in person at or around the are of the Calgary Latino Festival on July 15 and 16 of the year 2016 and asked the question "Which political party would have your support if an election was held tomorrow in the province of Alberta for the Government of Alberta?" Results of this poll may have been weighted with a bias towards the political attitudes within the inner-city, due to the tendency of events such as the Calgary Latino Festival to be attended disproportionately by individuals living in the downtown core (The very pleasant weather may have also influenced this bias!). Nevertheless, these results indicate the NDP remains strong within inner-city neighborhoods. The NDP posted a strong score of 27% support among decided voters, versus 22% for both the PCs and Liberals, who were followed by the Wildrose at 20% and other choices at 9%. Please note that some respondents to the term "other choices" include a united Conservative party (other than the PC party or the Wildrose party). Additionally, 13% of the original sample remained firmly undecided, including some respondents who refused to support either of the 2 current conservative parties in favor of a united conservative option. The results of this survey very strongly support Jason Kenney's claims for the need for a united right-wing party to win inner-city ridings.
Please contact QuantAdvantage for raw data and metadata.
Quant Advantage survey results, August 13-14, 2016, Downtown Calgary, TabestoonA survey conducted by Quant Advantage found a surprisingly high level of support for the NDP among a group of respondents. Participants were approached in person at or around the are of the Calgary Latino Festival on August 13 and 14 of the year 2016 and asked the question "Which political party would have your support if an election was held tomorrow in the province of Alberta for the Government of Alberta?" Results of this poll may have exhibited an inner-city bias, but this may be less pronounced than in the previous survey (July 15-16 2016). The reasoning behind this is that the participants were asked which area of Calgary they lived in and many indicated different areas, with a slight bias towards NE Calgary. Among decided voters, the PCs took the lead with 28%, the Wildrose placed second at 22%, and the NDP trailed at 18%. Among the original sample, 11% remained undecided. It is hypothesized that the PC surge may be the result of Jason Kenney's stated candidacy.
Please contact QuantAdvantage for raw data and metadata.
Quant Advantage survey results, August 18-20, 2016, Downtown Calgary - 3 way choiceA survey conducted by Quant Advantage found a surprisingly high level of support for the NDP among a group of respondents. Participants were approached in person on August 18 through August 20 of the year 2016 in downtown Calgary and asked the question "If an election was held tomorrow in the province of Alberta for the Government of Alberta, would you most likely support among the NDP, PC, or Wildrose, if those were your 3 choices on the ballot?"
It is estimated that this survey has little regional bias, evidenced by the fact that many of the participants indicated they came from varying parts of Calgary.
The PCs took a very desicive lead with 48% support, the NDP placed second at 30%, and the Wildrose trailed at 25%. Among the original sample, 11% remained undecided.
This is consistent with the results of the Faron Ellis poll conducted from the University of Lethbridge, which showed the PCs in the lead across Alberta.
Please contact QuantAdvantage for raw data and metadata.